June 18^th , 2023 will be an important date in the Political History of the country , and also an important date in contemporary politics . The NDA led by the BJP will be having a conclave of its allies in New Delhi  , and it is learnt that the party in power has brought in 38 parties , mainly smaller parties into its fold . The UPA led by the Congress is having its Conclave at Benguluru , and around 26 parties are getting together to put up a joint fight against the Bharatiya Janata Party . A matter of significance is the absence of the Biju Janata Dal (BJD)  from both the conclaves , thereby underlining the fact , that the party has yet to take a stand on the issue of fighting the 2024 elections alone or with an ally . The YSRP of Andhra Pradesh and the BRS of Telengana state have also decided to skip the two political jamborees . With the General Elections approaching fast , the ruling dispensation at the Centre , which is aiming for a third straight term , has the added advantage of being in power , and also the charismatic Prime Minister Narendra Modi to lead from the front . Can the oppistion parties get their calculations right and can they gel before the next polls is the question being asked by one and all ..Coming to Odisha politics , it is advantage BJD which has already got itself into a political mode .The Biju Janata Dal is the only party in the state , which has probably got its candidates ready in almost 100 seats , and 47  candidates remain to be selected . The BJD led by Naveen Patnaik , is on the front foot thanks to a fragmented opposition , and a lack of a personality who can meet the charisma of the Odisha CM .It is important to note here that for the first time the 5T Secretary , will be the cynosure of all eyes . V K Pandian , who claims to be representing the Chief Minister and has toured almost all Districts , has still got a few aces up his sleeves and he has the sate administration and the party right under his thumb .While the media has already started speculating as to if Naveen Patnaik will pass on the baton of the party leadership (read CM) to someone else after the polls , there are also rumour of a new Formula put in place , to keep the opposition at bay . The BJP will be flexing its muscles  and raring to go ,and this is possible only  if they get the green signal from the Central Command to go all out against the BJD .

 

The recent Opposition Conclave at Patna attended by around 32 political parties , including the Congress brings back memories of the 1978-79 , Jaya Prakash Narayans call for the people to fight the Emergency . At that meeting thousands of people assembled at Patna , voluntarily and many leaders like Chandra Sekhar , George Fernades , Mulayan Singh Yadhav , Lallu Prasad Yadhav etc were born out of this historic agitation .The recent convention , was more sophisticated in nature and the political leaders discussed their strategy away from the public glare .Elections in India has geographical impact and regional parties have a greater role in the political sphere . It is not missed that leaders of three important regional parties namely Biju Janata Dal (Odisha) , BRS (Telengana) , YRSP (AP) have disassociated themselves from the Opposition Conclave or the Third Front . These states have around 50 to 55 seats , which could be crucial in the next General Elections for the BJP and the Opposition .In the present scenario Congress party is weak in Odisha and AP and can be in third position in Telengana . The Opposition parties have their own pulls and push , in various states and this was magnified when the Delhi Unit and the Punjab unit of the party are still antagonistic over the rise of the Aam Admi Party (AAP) .

My question here is can the Opposition leaders , who have no love lost amongst themselves , gel together and put up a honest united front . Can the opposition leaders manage their State Units , who have their own power formula and equations , locally for their own survival .

 

Many people are under the impression that the former Chief Secretary of Odisha and newly indicted Congress leader Mr Bijaya Patnaik , may choose to start his political innings from the Paralakhemundi Assembly Segment ..a few Congress leaders are busy in trying to harp on the issue , saying that if the former Chief Secretary Mr Patnaik decides to contest on a Congress ticket ,from Paralakhemundi Seat he will win handsomely ..I hope sanity prevails and Mr Bijaya Patnaik , does his groundwork properly before deciding to contest from the prestigious Unreserved Paralakhemundi Assembly segment ..Once considered a Congress Citadel , the Congress lost the seat in 2009 before winning it back in 2014 , but came up croppers in the 2019 General Elections ..A brief political introspection is sufficient to prove that the BJD and the BJP have taken over the solid vote base of the Congress here ..It is only in the Tribal dominated Gumma Block the Congress still has some fire power left , but if the recent Gram Panchayat Elections of 2022 are analysed it will prove that the BJD has managed to gain over the voters who one were dedicated for the Grand Old Party ..The Hand symbol which had symbolised with the Gumma Block , is a far distant cry from its old self ..A lot of senior leaders of the Congress Party have passed or have retired from active politics ..Naveen Patnaik’s Welfare Scheme has attracted the rural voters in all parts of the state and the three rural Blocks of the Paralakhemundi Assembly Segment is no exception ..If the former CS Mr Bijaya Patnaik , really wants to contest from Paralakhemundi he has to come and set the Congress house in order ..the Party does not have a leader who can attract voters and a few leaders who are still with the Congress Party have limited pocket votes and even limited appeal ..The biggest drawback for the Congress in Odisha has been to find a leader who can match the charisma of Narendra Modiji or Naveen Patnaik ji ..thereby lays the dilemma for the Congress who , if they want to get back the past glory ,have to start rebuilding the party from the grassroot level here ..

 

I was closely watching the  Gram Panchayat Elections in West Bengal , namely for two reasons .One to see if the efforts of the main opposition BJP to create a picture of violence and lawlessness would be accepted by the people of West Bengal and number two to understand if the Welfare Schemes and Projects of the Mamata Benarjee Government has made an impact on the poor and BPL voters . The Trinamool Congress (TMC) , led by the effervescent and dynamic Mamata Benerjee has managed to keep her party ten feet ahead of the BJP .The Central Government had tried every trick in the book to bog down Didi (Mamata Benerjee) , including using the Governor of West Bengal to gain brownie points and have failed miserably . Politics in West Bengal has a lot of resemblance to the Politics in Odisha , and the two regional parties have the BJP as their main opponent in their respective states . Naveen Patnaik , the unquestionable  mass leader of Odisha and is a Brand in itself , whose political manoeuvring  has become legendary and an objective lesson in political assiduousness  . What Mamata Benerjee has been doing since 2011 , when her party displaced the Left Party from power , BJD led by Naveen Patnaik has been doing similarly since 1999 ..BJD came to power sidelining the Congress and has concentrated in managing contact with the public , almost on day to day basis ..Now discussing contemporary  politics ,a brief dissection of the TMC strategy of storming back to power in the 2021 Assembly and 2023 Panchayat elections has a similar resemblance to Biju Janata Dal political astuteness . Maintain mass contact and popularising the Brand Naveen has clicked with the voters. In the 2022 GP elections BJD has swept the polls winning all the 30 ZP President posts and taking over the Samity Chairman of 85% of the posts that was in contest. BJD like the TMC has been a vote guzzler even in the By-Elections with a win ration of 95% . The well-oiled political machinery of the TMC and the BJD have a similar trait, and the party President is the mascot that has not shown any signs fatigue, weariness or lassitude.

The BJD like the TMC is well ahead of its opponents and the upcoming Assembly Elections (if it is held in November or June next year) will be inconsequential as many political pundits have already given their verdict of the BJD winning comfortably. The big question here is will the opposition manage to keep the BJD below the 100 seat mark …